The currencies of the largest emerging market economies in Asia have remained broadly in line with their levels in February, with the Chinese renminbi depreciating modestly. The reaction of longer-term bond yields and the U.S. dollar to the change in U.S. tax policy appears to have been limited so far, and markets currently anticipate a more gradual pace of monetary policy tightening than incorporated into the WEO baseline. The World Economic Forum’s latest report on global competitiveness highlights how countries are adapting to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The rate of expansion appears to have peaked in some major economies and growth has become less synchronized. [2] "Billion" in the table below refers to the short scale usage of the term, where 1 billion = 1,000 million = 109. GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $) GDP (current LCU) GDP, PPP (current international $) GDP per capita growth (annual %) Download. Over the medium term, a potential buildup of vulnerabilities if financial conditions remain easy, the possible adoption of inward-looking policies, and noneconomic factors pose notable downside risks. Market expectations suggest that declining capacity in Venezuela and US sanctions on Iran may pose difficulties for the group to deliver the agreed upon production increase consistently. Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 13, 2017-December 11, 2017. Equity prices in advanced economies continued to rally, buoyed by generally favorable sentiment regarding earnings prospects, expectations of a very gradual normalization path for monetary policy in a weak inflation environment, and low expected volatility in underlying fundamentals. The United States is one of the world’s great innovation powerhouses, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2018. Stay tuned until January 21, when the World Economic Outlook Update will present the IMF’s view on where the global economy is headed. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board. These upward revisions more than offset further downward revisions for Venezuela. As of early July 2018, the US dollar has strengthened by over 5 percent in real effective terms since February (the reference period for the April 2018 WEO), while the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling are broadly unchanged. Some 120 economies, accounting for three quarters of world GDP, have seen a pickup in growth in year-on-year terms in 2017, the broadest synchronized global growth upsurge since 2010. They have since declined but remain around 240 basis points as of early July on concerns about future policies. Second, the imperative to increase resilience, including through proactive financial regulation and, where needed, balance sheet repair and strengthening fiscal buffers. The ECB announced that it will taper its monthly asset purchases from the current €30 billion to €15 billion in October, with an anticipated end to the program on December 31. Growth in Spain, which has been well above potential, has been marked down slightly for 2018, reflecting the effects of increased political uncertainty on confidence and demand. High-frequency hard data and sentiment indicators point to a continuation of strong momentum in the fourth quarter. Most emerging market equity indices have declined modestly, reflecting, in some cases, concerns about imbalances (e.g., Argentina and Turkey), and, more generally, rising downside risks to the outlook. World trade has grown strongly in recent months, supported by a pickup in investment, particularly among advanced economies, and increased manufacturing output in Asia in the run up to the launch of new smartphone models. Equity prices in advanced economies are generally higher than their February-March levels. Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize, The Financial System Is Stronger, but New Vulnerabilities Have Emerged in the Decade Since the Crisis, How COVID-19 Will Increase Inequality in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies, Emerging and Frontier Markets: Policy Tools in Times of Financial Stress, Pandemic Persistence Clouds Latin America and Caribbean Recovery. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. As the global cyclical upswing approaches its two‑year mark, the pace of expansion in some economies appears to have peaked and growth has become less synchronized across countries. The forecast for 2018 is lower by 0.1 percentage point compared to the April WEO, largely reflecting greater-than-expected growth moderations in the euro area and Japan after several quarters of above-potential growth. In the near term, the global economy is likely to maintain its momentum absent a correction in financial markets—which have seen a sustained run-up in asset prices and very low volatility, seemingly unperturbed by policy or political uncertainty in recent months. Weaker-than-anticipated macroeconomic data for South Africa contributed to the 7 percent depreciation of the South African rand, unwinding part of the sharp appreciation that had occurred in late 2017 and early 2018. The 2018 edition of the Global Competitiveness Report represents a milestone in the four-decade history of the series, with the introduction of the new Global Competitiveness Index 4.0. Countries are sorted by nominal GDP estimates from financial and statistical institutions, which are calculated at market or government official exchange rates. Purchasing managers’ indices indicate firm manufacturing activity ahead, consistent with strong consumer confidence pointing to healthy final demand.

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